Now that many of the big names of the free agency have been signed and dealt to their respective teams, I think it's appropriate to predict championship contenders for the upcoming NBA season.
Western Conference
Los Angeles Lakers - The defending champs look like they can easily win another title. Despite the fact that they lost Ariza to Houston, they managed to make what may turn out to be a better deal with the acquisition of defensive beast, Ron Artest. I've said it before and I'll say it again: this move undoubtedly should silence those who criticize the Lakers for being "softies." As I've already noted in a previous post, it's hard to have a missing piece in the puzzle when you're on top, but apparently, there is always room for improvement. The Lakers improved. Plus, Lamar Odom is still in town. By keeping Odom, they have the rights to his versatility and possess one of the best sixth men in the entire league.
At point guard, the Lake Show retains the high IQ of Derek Fisher, a phenomenal presence on and off the court and especially in the locker room. Furthermore, if you haven't already noticed, Gasol has gotten stronger and his attitude has changed dramatically - for the better - since the Lakers were defeated only a couple of years ago by the Celtics. The All-Star is a great teammate and makes for a productive post presence; we've seen the ball thrown to him down low numerous times and see him convert on the majority of his possessions. The main weakness on the team may, indeed, be Andrew Bynum who has yet to develop but remains full of wonderful possibilities. If the Lakers are able to capitalize on his potential, they could have themselves a very special season.
Ultimately, though, the Lakers still have the two cornerstones of their franchise: Head Coach Phil Jackson and superstar Kobe Bryant. Phil expressed in early July that he will be back and even though he may share head coaching duties with defensive-minded assistant coach, Kurt Rambis, he is on the payroll and will be back for one more season with the Lake Show. And any team with Kobe is almost always a competitor in the NBA. Even after thirteen seasons of professional play, he's still committed to winning and is competitive drive is as strong as ever. This year we really saw him balance his scoring well and trust his teammates much more. That will only continue. If injuries don't hurt this team too badly, they are definitely a solid lock for the NBA Finals and the odds are that the Lakers will bring home the gold for the second consecutive season.
Denver Nuggets - Not to be redundant, but considering the fact that the Nuggets really haven't lost any talent over the summer, their contention should be taken seriously. Even after trading away Allen Iverson and receiving Chauncey Billups, I don't know how many people would've foreseen Denver almost pushing the Lakers to the brink in the Western Conference Finals. Nonetheless, we saw Melo mature, a phase that we should see Lebron go through this year, and accept the fact that in order to win, he'd need to listen to the new leader on the team.
The point of consistency on this team, for the time being, is Billups. If he can continue to hold this team together, victories should pile up. What Denver should wake up and realize is that by trading for Billups they might have gotten a marginally better point guard than Iverson, but they dropped an ego. Unfortunately, Carmelo Anthony can be a bit of a lunatic sometimes. J.R. Smith can take some crazy shots. Instead of A.I. barking at them or hogging the ball, in those situations it's Billups that can pull them aside and contribute his veteran knowledge.
The big factor, though, will prove to be how effective Nene and J.R. Smith can be. Nene helped out fantasy team owners tremendously last season with his superb numbers. Just when we though the Nuggets were on the verge of collapse after trading away Camby, Mr. Hilario emerges out of the shadows to prove us wrong. One could even argue that Nene did a better job than the Cambyman. As for J.R. Smith, his energy is unparalleled and can often result in quick bursts of scoring. There were games where he would drain three-point shot after three-point shot, regardless of the fact that the defense was in his face on each possession. Although, the key will be to see how he can control his energy. If the Nuggets can get consistent contributions from everybody on the team, their twenty-nine opponents that better be careful.
San Antonio Spurs - So far in this decade, the Spurs have seemingly always been strong contenders for the Larry O'Brien trophy. You could bet that Tim Duncan would still be performing his post moves come playoff time. There wasn't a single reason to doubt that Tony Parker would be getting inside for layups during the NBA tourney. You knew that Manu would be flopping in a seven game series. Despite all indications that this team is too old to compete, they keep hushing naysayers by dominating the West. In short, they're still beasts.
In the past, we've seen what a large impact Ginobli's presence has on the Spurs. They're just not the same without the Argentinian. Which makes the acquisition of Richard Jefferson all the better. They no longer have to put so much pressure on Manu. Now, all Parker really has to do is pass it to Richard Jefferson and leave it to him to create his own shot - or maybe give him a pick and let him shoot. Anyway, Jefferson brings a much more dynamic range and dependency. In clutch situations, I'm sure Gregg Poppavich didn't have a 100% faith in his team. Sure, they execute well, but they didn't have a scoring superstar. Emphasis on the word "scoring." When the clock is winding down, they don't have to think about who gets the last shot. It's going to be Richard Jefferson.
As if the Spurs needed another veteran, they snagged Antonio McDyess, one of the most consistent Pistons of the decade. His steady mid-range jumpshot and post maneuvers really helped out Detroit. If he can continue to work down low and spread the floor with a 15-footer, he can easily create a tough match-up. He's certainly an upgrade over Oberto, whose IQ I still question. McDyess, however, has been around and knows what it takes to be a champion, as do many of his teammates. He's surely self-motivated. If all these puzzle pieces come together for the Spurs and the starters can stay healthy, the Spurs' season should be just as fruitful as those that preceded it.
Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers - Many have jumped on to the Cavs' bandwagon since they signed Shaq. I'm not quite ready to get on board, but I will admit that they are certainly contenders. Shaq's been around for awhile - so has his ego - and now he realizes that it is no longer his time to shine. As a Cavalier, Shaq recognizes the fact that his numbers will decrease, that he will get less attention, and that he is the head of the witness protection program. Cleveland's grand jury is demanding that Shaq/(insert nickname here) come through and help the king secure gold. However, the pursuit to the promised land won't be an easy one.
Lebron will have to make sacrifices, too. Even though he is still the Commander-in-Chief of his army, he will have to learn how to delegate with his troops. He will no longer be the constant obsession of local reporters. He may no longer have the cover of every magazine to himself. Just like Shaq, he will learn have to share. In order to win as a team, LBJ will have to distribute and find Mr. O'Neal in the paint. He will have to pass up on jumpshots and instead give up the ball for a high percentage jam - by a witness. Additionally, #23 will have to step up his leadership - and that starts by being a good leader. When he chose not to shake hands with the Magic after losing in the Conference Finals, he became a total disappoint and exposed that he was a sore loser. That kind of behavior is unacceptable. It just won't be tolerated, at least, if the league decides to take action. And even if they don't, if Lebron doesn't use his brain, don't expect to see the Cavs in the Finals.
Another key element to a potential championship run will prove to be how many minutes can be split between the Big Z and the Big Aristotle. For the most part, Varajeo shouldn't be affected but how when will Mike Brown keep Shaq on the floor? When will he play Illgauskas? If the Cavs are able to balance minutes and both Shaq and Lebron make the necessary sacrifices, we may very well see the Cavs reach the main stage. After all, as Kobe and Lebron found out the hard way, MVP honors are only so meaningful if you can't win the real prize.
Boston Celtics - Ah, if only Boston had lost in the first round this year. Then the Celtics fans would have nothing to say. But, truth be told, the Celtics are still a powerhouse in the league and should be able to give the Cavs a run for their money. Without hesitation, this team holds the most dangerous group of veterans in the league. Spearheaded by nobody in particular, the starting lineup of this squad is simply scary.
In order to make a legitimate postseason run, the C's will need the same kind of clutch performances we saw from Ray Allen last year against the Chicago Bulls. Every time Derek Rose enjoyed a three-point play on a hard drive, you could sure bet that Ray Allen could follow that up with one of his deadly shots from behind the arc. Despite the absence of KG and the fact that Paul Pierce and Big Baby had fouled out, Allen persisted; he knew that no matter what, giving up was not an option. At his age, if he can match that passion this season, things could get ugly in the East.
On the other hand, the success of this franchise also lies heavily on the shoulders of their starting point guard. Rajon Rondo has already expressed a desire to leave Boston. If that happens, who will be his replacement? He's just such a great fit, it would really hurt the team to see him leave. However, the main catalyst in the Celtics' prosperity will prove to be health. With a veteran team, there's always the concern of injuries. We already saw how things went downhill went KG was sidelined. The Celtics can't afford an injury to Allen, Pierce, Garnett, or Wallace. If they can all keep healthy and stay together (cough, cough, Rondo), then expect a true battle in the Eastern Conference.
By the way, comments are always appreciated. In the last post, an elite reader submitted a suggestion - Ben, you could include Shaq and the Cavs in one of your posts - and guess what, I just did. Remember, story ideas and feedback are always appreciated.
This offseason is unique for several reasons. Firstly, because this is when the preparations for next year's big moves begins. With the upcoming stardom of the 2010 free agency, it can be easy to overlook the wonders of 2009. Although, we shouldn't even get to the hype yet because only a few years ago we saw an interesting trade go through...
The Spurs have traded for Richard Jefferson? Really?! The guy has only been in Milwaukee for a year and the Bucks already whisked him away. He was averaging a steady 19.6 points this season and was shooting a career best 39.7% from behind the arc, according to NBA.com. What's more amusing, though, is not the Richard Jefferson point-of-view on this, but instead the Spurs' perspective. San Antonio recently saw their past successes basically get shot out the window with their silent but disappointing performance this year. Even without Manu Ginobli, they were no longer contenders as they had been for the better part of a decade. It was the Tony and Tim Show with three pointers here and there from Matt Bonner and occasional performances outside of the dynamic duo. Maybe the Spurs read my post about the formation and demoralization of dynasties. Maybe they read the posts of other sportswriters; maybe the media was finally getting through to management.
Or maybe the Texans just woke up and realized they were not going to have a chance at pursuing titles unless they upgrade the quality of their roster. My primary criticism of this deal is that the Spurs may have just given up too much. They lost a hard-nosed defensive presence in Bruce Bowen, a bulky but somewhat effective forward in Oberto (not kidding), and a veteran presence in Kurt Thomas. I think those three role players may account for much more than Richard Jefferson. But there's no anger on the Spurs' players. Tony Parker has called RJ "a great wing" and a team with Manu Ginobli, Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and now Richard Jefferson would a devastating match-up for most opponents.
Local free agency here in Los Angeles has also been well-documented recently. The Lakers must make up a decision on whether to resign Odom, Ariza, and Brown. Odom was on the books for $14 mil and a pay cut is imminent no matter where he goes, but he did play especially well in his contract year (surprise, surprise). Despite his anger at the beginning of the year, he has proven to be an exceptional x-factor and was very helpful in the absence of Bynum. Many teams will be watching Ariza after his growth this season. Throughout his pro career, he really hadn't made a reputation for himself other than being renown for his athleticism. This year he proved he can defend the quickest forward on the opposing team in addition to driving and shooting. As for Brown, the young man really made a name for himself by scoring and dishing out assists the second he came off the bench. Instead of his focusing on his lack of minutes he made the most of what he got and impressed everybody watching in the process. Teams will be eyeing this guard and will probably sign him as a back-up, although I believe the Lakers will resign him.
We have also heard talk of Hedo Turkoglu's departure from Orlando after he turned down a contract extension. I'm not sure where Hedo will go or what system he'd best fit in just because he is such a unique player. Nevertheless, while I was watching ESPN, it may have been Around the Horn, the only respectable part of that franchise, I heard of a possibly move to Detroit and that sounds about right. The Pistons are missing that extra piece to tone down Iverson's firepower and allow the Motor City's talents to mesh. This will all surely leave a major void to fill for Orlando.
There is also another departure, and not of a player's but rather an entire team . We have heard talk for a few months now that the New Jersey Nets are relocating themselves to Brooklyn. Now, the Nets owner has been graciously awarded a delay on his arena payments and can kick back and relax. A professional sports team in Brooklyn will definitely have an immense cultural impact. For years to come, rappers will be rhyming about this new team in their hood. The league would be allocating athletic representation to a city who desperately needs it. For decades, Brooklyn has only been known as a poor city full of African-Americans and the celebrities who emerge from the area have all prided themselves on their rags-to-riches journey. What better way to show the NBA cares than to designate a team to such a deserving region?
And of course, the big thing on everyone's mind right now is the NBA Draft. For some teams, draft day will turn out to be a historic moment that turned around their franchise. For others, it may result in a bust and a horrible decision may cost them, literally cost them, for the next few years. And for some, like the Lakers, this draft shouldn't matter that much at the moment. But as usual, this year we have foreign (Ricky Rubio) and domestic (the Clippers and other disastrous teams) hype. Will Brandon Jennings break into the association with a bang? Will Stephen Curry make an immediate impact? Will Ricky Rubio be the next Darko Milicic? Who is Milenko Tepic? (I found his name under the 57th pick for Suns on NBADraft.net's mock draft. He's from Serbia =)
What I'm concerned about in this draft is the resurgence of the league's currently "bad" teams. I always use the Clippers in video games but for some reason they can never get themselves together during the season. When you have Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, Sam Cassel, and Cuttino Mobley you have to keep going after a ring. Lottery picks haven't really uplifted this team either. It even angers me to list all the people the Clippers could have picked when they chose to go a different way. Hopefully, Blake Griffin will be able to contribute right away. As for the Grizzlies, my apologies to all Memphis fans. After the Pau Gasol "donation", you all were disgraced and in return, Ricky Rubio, the latest foreign sensation seems like he can help. I'm particularly interested in is the performance of Stephen Curry. Two years ago, he had Lebron rooting for him and he was truly the talk of the town. This year we didn't hear as much about him, but he's still feared. NBADraft.net has him going to Sactown, where hopefully he can turn things around.
Also, make sure to keep an eye on ballers from around the world making their way to the NBA, the world's most coveted pro basketball league. There's a lot of hype currently surrounding Brandon Jennings, but I believe he will take the initiative to acclimate to NBA play this summer and be ready to woo the world during the season. I am very excited to report that this year's draft features the possible styles of this year's draft may include Israel, Spain, Ukraine, Serbia, France, Sweden. My only worry is that these boys will not represent their countries well, which we have seen from international players quite often in the past. However, most of these prospects are projected to be selected in the second round in mock drafts - which isn't a good sign for their position in the actual draft. Rest assured, though, there are plenty of other talented, home-grown prospects to fill the void.
Don't expect too much drama outside of the draft during this offseason, and if some trades do go down it's ultimately to prepare for next year's extravaganza. Many teams are looking to go younger and free up cap space and don't be surprised if this doesn't turn out to be a blockbuster summer, because general managers are eagerly awaiting to evaluate their team in season play. I'm expecting several trades to happen throughout the course of the year after we realize how much potential each individual has. Until then, we await draft day.
There once was a professional basketball league ruled by a monarchy. And while power continually shifted between Detroit and San Antonio, you knew that the throne belonged to one of the two powerhouses. You could be sure that Tony Parker would blaze right through any line of defense and come out victorious no matter where the battleground. You could foresee Chauncey Billups hitting a crucial three point dagger as he received the rock at the top of the key. The common fan was furious upon sight of Ginobli, knowing his flops would be detrimental to the success of their own team. Richard Hamilton ran from one end of the court to the other for the sole purpose of scoring that annoying mid-range jumper.
And that was just the backcourt.
When you played Detroit "back in the day" once you found a way to get by Rasheed, you then had to manaveur past Big Ben. And matching up with Tim Duncan not only meant few points for the defender, but plenty of hooks and dunks from #21.
Now, whether it be for good or for bad, both the Pistons and Spurs have seen their downfall. Today, a Motown team that had reached the Eastern Conference Finals three years in a row and had become familiar with the glory of the NBA Finals and championships, was swept to the younger, flashier Cleveland Cavaliers. As for San Antonio, a team that used to always slice the jugular of their opponent, is losing 1-3 to the renewed offensive juggernauts of Dallas. There are very simple reasons for the decline of these teams. When you take elements away from an assembly line, you don't end up with a complete product. We've seen this best in Detroit, where the equation has been drastically modified with the subtraction of Coach Flip Saunders, the defensive capabilities Ben Wallace offered, and most of all, the stability and intelligence that Chauncey Billups provided them game in and game out. The Spurs are a great example of how beauty products can only be so effective when reaching a certain age. Even with the addition of younger players in Roger Mason Jr. and George Hill, the core of their team is still ancient. Bruce Bowen dates back to prehistoric times at age 37, Oberto should be called the "Ancient Argentine" after celebrating 34 birthdays, Tim Duncan can now be considered old school having been born in '76, at 31 years of age fans should actually praise Ginobli for the strength he exerts in flops, and the Brent Barry replacement - Matt Bonner - just turned 29.
However, before we begin to complain about the deprivation of authority in the NBA, one must pause and look both ways - just like crossing a street. In the West, the Los Angeles Lakers have regained their status as a championship-caliber team. And remarkably, there is a team just as fierce and equally feared in the Cleveland Cavaliers. The journey to the top for both teams was actually quite similiar. Step 1 for general managers Mitch Kuptchak and Danny Ferry was to build around their superstars, Kobe and Lebron. Step 2 was to identify the starting position(s) that needed to be filled. Next, was to make rational transactions that would greatly benefit the team. And the last task was to add some depth to the team, to equip the starters with bench players that could do a good job filling in. Nonetheless, there was also that other challenge that the most talented player on each team faced. Diversifying productivity to benefit the team, which in turn, helped their play. What I mean by this is that KB24 and LBJ realized they had to adjust to ensure dominance. The main adjustment: trusting teammates as much as themselves. The fact that those 2 future Hall-of-Famers have reached the MVP status they now hold is because the Lakers and Cavaliers are no longer completely one-man teams. Of course, this is made much easier with the acquisition of skilled players, which means kudos to the GMs.
The Verdict: While we are seeing a decline in the game of Detroit and San Antonio, the ruling powers have been replaced by the Lake Show and the Cavs. A period of pure play may now cease to exist, but a Golden Era of enthralling basketball has only just begun.