Now that many of the big names of the free agency have been signed and dealt to their respective teams, I think it's appropriate to predict championship contenders for the upcoming NBA season.
Western Conference
Los Angeles Lakers - The defending champs look like they can easily win another title. Despite the fact that they lost Ariza to Houston, they managed to make what may turn out to be a better deal with the acquisition of defensive beast, Ron Artest. I've said it before and I'll say it again: this move undoubtedly should silence those who criticize the Lakers for being "softies." As I've already noted in a previous post, it's hard to have a missing piece in the puzzle when you're on top, but apparently, there is always room for improvement. The Lakers improved. Plus, Lamar Odom is still in town. By keeping Odom, they have the rights to his versatility and possess one of the best sixth men in the entire league.
At point guard, the Lake Show retains the high IQ of Derek Fisher, a phenomenal presence on and off the court and especially in the locker room. Furthermore, if you haven't already noticed, Gasol has gotten stronger and his attitude has changed dramatically - for the better - since the Lakers were defeated only a couple of years ago by the Celtics. The All-Star is a great teammate and makes for a productive post presence; we've seen the ball thrown to him down low numerous times and see him convert on the majority of his possessions. The main weakness on the team may, indeed, be Andrew Bynum who has yet to develop but remains full of wonderful possibilities. If the Lakers are able to capitalize on his potential, they could have themselves a very special season.
Ultimately, though, the Lakers still have the two cornerstones of their franchise: Head Coach Phil Jackson and superstar Kobe Bryant. Phil expressed in early July that he will be back and even though he may share head coaching duties with defensive-minded assistant coach, Kurt Rambis, he is on the payroll and will be back for one more season with the Lake Show. And any team with Kobe is almost always a competitor in the NBA. Even after thirteen seasons of professional play, he's still committed to winning and is competitive drive is as strong as ever. This year we really saw him balance his scoring well and trust his teammates much more. That will only continue. If injuries don't hurt this team too badly, they are definitely a solid lock for the NBA Finals and the odds are that the Lakers will bring home the gold for the second consecutive season.
Denver Nuggets - Not to be redundant, but considering the fact that the Nuggets really haven't lost any talent over the summer, their contention should be taken seriously. Even after trading away Allen Iverson and receiving Chauncey Billups, I don't know how many people would've foreseen Denver almost pushing the Lakers to the brink in the Western Conference Finals. Nonetheless, we saw Melo mature, a phase that we should see Lebron go through this year, and accept the fact that in order to win, he'd need to listen to the new leader on the team.
The point of consistency on this team, for the time being, is Billups. If he can continue to hold this team together, victories should pile up. What Denver should wake up and realize is that by trading for Billups they might have gotten a marginally better point guard than Iverson, but they dropped an ego. Unfortunately, Carmelo Anthony can be a bit of a lunatic sometimes. J.R. Smith can take some crazy shots. Instead of A.I. barking at them or hogging the ball, in those situations it's Billups that can pull them aside and contribute his veteran knowledge.
The big factor, though, will prove to be how effective Nene and J.R. Smith can be. Nene helped out fantasy team owners tremendously last season with his superb numbers. Just when we though the Nuggets were on the verge of collapse after trading away Camby, Mr. Hilario emerges out of the shadows to prove us wrong. One could even argue that Nene did a better job than the Cambyman. As for J.R. Smith, his energy is unparalleled and can often result in quick bursts of scoring. There were games where he would drain three-point shot after three-point shot, regardless of the fact that the defense was in his face on each possession. Although, the key will be to see how he can control his energy. If the Nuggets can get consistent contributions from everybody on the team, their twenty-nine opponents that better be careful.
San Antonio Spurs - So far in this decade, the Spurs have seemingly always been strong contenders for the Larry O'Brien trophy. You could bet that Tim Duncan would still be performing his post moves come playoff time. There wasn't a single reason to doubt that Tony Parker would be getting inside for layups during the NBA tourney. You knew that Manu would be flopping in a seven game series. Despite all indications that this team is too old to compete, they keep hushing naysayers by dominating the West. In short, they're still beasts.
In the past, we've seen what a large impact Ginobli's presence has on the Spurs. They're just not the same without the Argentinian. Which makes the acquisition of Richard Jefferson all the better. They no longer have to put so much pressure on Manu. Now, all Parker really has to do is pass it to Richard Jefferson and leave it to him to create his own shot - or maybe give him a pick and let him shoot. Anyway, Jefferson brings a much more dynamic range and dependency. In clutch situations, I'm sure Gregg Poppavich didn't have a 100% faith in his team. Sure, they execute well, but they didn't have a scoring superstar. Emphasis on the word "scoring." When the clock is winding down, they don't have to think about who gets the last shot. It's going to be Richard Jefferson.
As if the Spurs needed another veteran, they snagged Antonio McDyess, one of the most consistent Pistons of the decade. His steady mid-range jumpshot and post maneuvers really helped out Detroit. If he can continue to work down low and spread the floor with a 15-footer, he can easily create a tough match-up. He's certainly an upgrade over Oberto, whose IQ I still question. McDyess, however, has been around and knows what it takes to be a champion, as do many of his teammates. He's surely self-motivated. If all these puzzle pieces come together for the Spurs and the starters can stay healthy, the Spurs' season should be just as fruitful as those that preceded it.
Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers - Many have jumped on to the Cavs' bandwagon since they signed Shaq. I'm not quite ready to get on board, but I will admit that they are certainly contenders. Shaq's been around for awhile - so has his ego - and now he realizes that it is no longer his time to shine. As a Cavalier, Shaq recognizes the fact that his numbers will decrease, that he will get less attention, and that he is the head of the witness protection program. Cleveland's grand jury is demanding that Shaq/(insert nickname here) come through and help the king secure gold. However, the pursuit to the promised land won't be an easy one.
Lebron will have to make sacrifices, too. Even though he is still the Commander-in-Chief of his army, he will have to learn how to delegate with his troops. He will no longer be the constant obsession of local reporters. He may no longer have the cover of every magazine to himself. Just like Shaq, he will learn have to share. In order to win as a team, LBJ will have to distribute and find Mr. O'Neal in the paint. He will have to pass up on jumpshots and instead give up the ball for a high percentage jam - by a witness. Additionally, #23 will have to step up his leadership - and that starts by being a good leader. When he chose not to shake hands with the Magic after losing in the Conference Finals, he became a total disappoint and exposed that he was a sore loser. That kind of behavior is unacceptable. It just won't be tolerated, at least, if the league decides to take action. And even if they don't, if Lebron doesn't use his brain, don't expect to see the Cavs in the Finals.
Another key element to a potential championship run will prove to be how many minutes can be split between the Big Z and the Big Aristotle. For the most part, Varajeo shouldn't be affected but how when will Mike Brown keep Shaq on the floor? When will he play Illgauskas? If the Cavs are able to balance minutes and both Shaq and Lebron make the necessary sacrifices, we may very well see the Cavs reach the main stage. After all, as Kobe and Lebron found out the hard way, MVP honors are only so meaningful if you can't win the real prize.
Boston Celtics - Ah, if only Boston had lost in the first round this year. Then the Celtics fans would have nothing to say. But, truth be told, the Celtics are still a powerhouse in the league and should be able to give the Cavs a run for their money. Without hesitation, this team holds the most dangerous group of veterans in the league. Spearheaded by nobody in particular, the starting lineup of this squad is simply scary.
In order to make a legitimate postseason run, the C's will need the same kind of clutch performances we saw from Ray Allen last year against the Chicago Bulls. Every time Derek Rose enjoyed a three-point play on a hard drive, you could sure bet that Ray Allen could follow that up with one of his deadly shots from behind the arc. Despite the absence of KG and the fact that Paul Pierce and Big Baby had fouled out, Allen persisted; he knew that no matter what, giving up was not an option. At his age, if he can match that passion this season, things could get ugly in the East.
On the other hand, the success of this franchise also lies heavily on the shoulders of their starting point guard. Rajon Rondo has already expressed a desire to leave Boston. If that happens, who will be his replacement? He's just such a great fit, it would really hurt the team to see him leave. However, the main catalyst in the Celtics' prosperity will prove to be health. With a veteran team, there's always the concern of injuries. We already saw how things went downhill went KG was sidelined. The Celtics can't afford an injury to Allen, Pierce, Garnett, or Wallace. If they can all keep healthy and stay together (cough, cough, Rondo), then expect a true battle in the Eastern Conference.
By the way, comments are always appreciated. In the last post, an elite reader submitted a suggestion - Ben, you could include Shaq and the Cavs in one of your posts - and guess what, I just did. Remember, story ideas and feedback are always appreciated.
