Note: Temporarily, I believe the Eastern Conference doesn't deserve a playoff preview. First because it's way too easy to make the playoffs in the East and second, it;s too predictable: eventually, everyone will surrender to the Cavaliers.
The NBA playoffs have practically arrived; let the excitement begin! The Western Conference was particularly competitive this year, the mandate for playoff participation being 50 regular season victories. In contrast to the twenty games that separate #1 and #8 in the East, only 7 victories separate the top-seeded Los Angeles Lakers from the #8 Oklahoma City Thunder. When looking at the West, it's clear that if a lower seed wins a series it would hardly be regarded as an "upset". From Los Angeles down, every squad seems like a threat, if not a contender.
Here's a look at the first round:
#1 Lakers vs. #8 Thunder
Although the Lakers went 3-1 against the Thunder this year, their most recent meeting resulted in a sound defeat and, in the biggest understatement possible, they haven't closed out the regular season on a good note. Then again, Andrew Bynum is returning and a well-rested Kobe, despite his litany of injuries, is extremely dangerous. In order for the Thunder to win this series, OKC point guard, Russell Westbrook, has to exploit his mismatch. Derek Fisher is great, but any young guard is capable of running circles around him - and Westbrook is no different.
Of course, Durant also has to come through. Even though he'll probably be matched up against Artest, Ron Ron, for the most part, has yet to prove himself. Occasionally he lets us have a peek at his defensive skills (i.e. vs. Carmelo Anthony), but for every successful moment he's had, there have been at least three other times where he let the Lake Show down. What's worse (for the Lakers), is that Durant feels that Lakers Coach Phil Jackson was "disrespectful" to him by remarking about how the refs have awarded him with so many free throws.
The Lakers have a simple game plan: pound it inside! Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum are overwhelming for any team, but especially Nenad Kristic and Jeff Green. No disrespect to Green and Nenad, but I can't see them stopping L.A.'s twin towers. If they rack up the "points in the paint" stat, there should be no need for late-game heroics from Kobe.
Prediction: Lakers in 5. Kobe Bryant is just too good and too intelligent of a player to let this series go past 5 games, but with the Lakers' inconsistency, a 6 or 7 game series is always possible.
The Texas Two-Step: #2 Mavs vs. #7 Spurs
If this was a match-up of the old Spurs - by old, I mean Spurs teams of previous years - versus the current Mavs team, then this would be an extremely exciting series. But Dallas has beaten the Spurs in 3 out of their four regular season match-ups. Both teams have finished the season well, though. The Mavs have gone 23-6 since acquiring Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, while the Spurs finished off the year with 18 victories in 28 games (18-8).
In order for the Spurs to win, everyone has to be on their A-game. First of all, George Hill has to exploit his youth against the much older Jason Kidd. He may not be known for quickness, but against Jason Kidd many players have the potential to be track stars. Parker, on the other hand, is notorious for his speed and should have no problem toying with J-Kidd. Ginobli must be a defensive presence. If he can contain Caron Butler, that's already a huge step toward victory. Richard Jefferson needs to get the best of Shawn Marion. Jefferson is a better scorer, so if he can knock down shots and can cause Marion to need help D, the Spurs will have plenty of opportunities.
Additionally, Antonio McDyess and DeJaun Blair need to guard the post as if their lives depended on it. Dampier and Haywood aren't anything too special, but if they aren't defended (well), they can be dangerous. And in the match-up everyone is waiting for, Tim Duncan has to be willing to roam around the perimeter. Although the ideal situation is letting Dirk take threes instead of mid-range jumpers, Nowitzki ain't bad from downtown. Duncan can't slack off and has to guard him no matter where he ventures off to.
The Mavs have to play smart - smarter than the Spurs. That's easier said than done, of course. Dirk has to establish himself as a three-point threat, command double teams, and create looks. Defensively, he can't allow any easy baskets for Duncan. Tim has a wide variety of post moves, but he should have to take contested looks. Kidd can't try to score against a taller, faster Hill. Instead, he must do what he does best: pass. Butler really has to exploit his match-up. There's no way Ginobli can outperform this guy. Butler is just too agressive for Ginobli - offensively and defensively. Shawn Marion has to stay in front of Jefferson and make him a non-factor. Not to be forgotten are Dampier and Haywood, who need to crash the boards. Rebounds, rebounds, rebounds. The Spurs might not execute 100% on their first possession, but give them a second chance and they'll burn you.
Prediction: Mavs in 6. The Mavs are too dominant for the Spurs, who take the term "veteran squad" to the extreme.
#3 Suns vs. #6 Trailblazers
Give me a piggyback ride or else...
It sounds repetitive, but the Suns are a hot team, finishing the year with 14 wins in their last 16 games. In contrast, Portland had 3 losses in February alone. Both these teams deserve tremendous credit for getting this far, especially Portland. The Trailblazers have faced a deluge of injuries, with pretty much everyone on their roster hurt at one point or another. I remember reading that a Bulls writer wrote: "If you're a center for the Trailblazers, why get out of bed in the morning?" Props to Nate McMillan and the entire Trailblazers crew for hanging tight, and not only making the playoffs, but finishing as a #6 seed. Now that's an accomplishment. With regard to the Suns, they're not what they used to be - and Steve Nash certainly isn't as young as he used to be - but they've maintained focus (i.e. Amare after the trade deadline) and got a high seeding.
If you're a Trailblazers fan, you must be disappointed to hear about Brandon Roy's surgery, which will keep him out for 1-2 weeks. Anyway, Andre Miller will have to step up and has the difficult task of chasing Nash.
Ultimately, though, the only way to defeat Phoenix is to make it a half-court game and exploit height advantages, particularly in the post. Marcus Camby may not be as young & flashy as Amare, but he's certainly a presence. If Camby is able to dominate in the post, whether it be by rebounding, scoring, or both, the game/series changes dramatically. Then, Amare and Jarron Collins start picking up loose ball fouls and get called for blocking. That means Louis Admunson and Channing Frye are in, which is when you can really run away with the game. No disrespect to Frye and Admunson. They're great players who are part of the reason why the Phoenix bench is as good as it is. But I'd take Lamarcus Aldridge & Marcus Camby over Frye & Admunson any day.
Last note for Portland: defend the perimeter. Shooting threes is almost like a layup drill for the Suns. You can't let them scorch you from downtown.
From the Phoenix perspective, the Suns have to get Portland in foul trouble. In spite of all their injuries, the Blazers are not a deep team, and could really struggle without Camby down low or without Andre Miller calling plays. Which means Amare and Jarron Collins have to stay out of foul trouble. It's also imperative that the Suns keep running. The best thing the Suns can do is tire the short-manned Blazers. The Phoenix Suns are capable of beating any team in a track meet (with a possible exception of the Golden State Warriors) and fatigue will take its toll throughout a playoff series.
Prediction: Phoenix in 5. This could potentially end up a 6 game series, but I don't expect Portland to win more than 1 game.
#4 Nuggets vs. #5 Jazz
This series undoubtedly seems like the most competitive. The Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz are two of the league's most physical teams and their opponents always prepare for bruises. Neither team has "underdog" status in this match-up, as is the case with most #4-#5 pairings. There's no doubt this series will amount to "all that Jazz". Sorry, that was a cheesy joke. Seriously, though, I foresee these two squads battling it out in a Game 7.
Unfortunately for Utah, Andrei Kirelinko is injured, meaning that their only true threat is the 1-2 punch of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer - although I shouldn't proceed that phrase with "only." The tandem is the main reason why the Jazz became #5. In order for their success to continue, however, they'll need to keep in mind a few things. First of all, Boozer won't be very effective in the post considering that the paint belongs to Birdman and Kenyon Martin. Boozer, as well as his teammates, will have to use their range. Mid-range and outside game will be crucial. If the Jazz can consistently knock down jumpers and then command attention, they should start driving. But I'd think twice before I tried to dunk or take a lay-up if Chris Andersen is in the way.
Lastly, Deron Williams must remember the age difference between him and Chauncey Billups. Billups may be the most complete point guard in the league in terms of his skill set, but he certainly isn't the fastest. If D-Will resorts to his nice moves and quickness, he'll get the best of Billups.
As a Nuggets strategist, I would try to get Ty Lawson into a rhythm during this series. If he and Billups could effectively switch off at the point guard position, the juxtaposition of quickness and intelligence/experience, then Deron Williams' head will be spinning. Just like the Lakers, the Nuggets have to dump the ball into the post. One decent move from Birdman and Mehmet Okur will go flying. By the same token, Birdman has to play good D on Okur, particularly on the perimeter. As a big man, sometimes it can be difficult to go beyond the free-throw line, but Andersen must stay in front of Okur at all times. Mehmet loves to get those easy 3s in trasition, but Birdman has to make sure they're contested.
Final comment for Denver: Carmelo has to take advantage of his mismatch. C.J. Miles is a formiddable opponent, but 'Melo can take him any day. Once Carmelo has the ball, he has to be agressive and offensive-minded. He can't settle for jumpshots; if nobody can stop him, he might as well drive. And once he attracts a double team, he can kick it out to Chauncey, who'll make a good decision.
Prediction: Denver in 7. The Jazz are strong but aren't stacked enough to take on a Nuggets team of J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Andersen, Chauncey Billups, and Ty Lawson. Utah's players are among the most underrated in the league, but sometime the intangibles aren't enough.
