Posted by Ben on 5/12/2010 07:25:00 PM


I hold off on any Lebron material since it's still premature. A Cavs/Lebron-related post will be posted after the series is over.

The Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns - or Los Suns, whatever you prefer - are beyond familiar with each other. Besides the fact that they are both in the Pacific Division and play each other four times every season, they also played each other for two consecutive seasons in the first round of the playoffs. As the record shows, the Suns were victorious in both encounters and historical in one series, coming back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the #7-seeded Lakers. The other and more recent series, the Lakers' loss in 5 games, ignited a wildfire in Kobe Bryant, which resulted in the acquisition of Pau Gasol and Derek Fisher.

Clearly, this time, things are very different. Shaq has come and gone for the Suns, Steve Kerr has assembled a dangerous supporting cast, A'mare has been a force to be reckoned with, Nash at 35 (with one eye) is better than most point guards, nay players, in the NBA, and the Suns are arguably the hottest (pun intended) team in the NBA after the All-Star break. The Los Angeles Lakers are no longer the underdog but defending champions, with the game's best closer, a clutch point guard, a coach on the verge of retirement, and have replaced their Kwame Brown-Chris Mihm front court with Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol.

All that said, no rational person should believe that the Suns will beat the Lakers. Not. A. Chance. For every argument against the Lakers in this series, there is an even better counter favoring L.A. Kobe Bryant is battling multiple injuries and won't be 100%. Well, he just posted 30 points or more during the Lakers' sweep of the Jazz while connecting on 46 of 88 shots (about 52.68%). Plus, nobody on Phoenix is capable of remotely slowing him down. And he's going to be even more difficult to defend since he's well rested.

The Lakers are old, thus slow, and can't keep up with the Suns. Then how did L.A. win the season series 3-1, outscoring the Suns with an average of 11.67 in the Lakers' victories? Oh, I know, because the Lakers have a frontcourt of two talented seven-footers, one of them a starting center for the second best country in FIBA, and the Suns have...Robin Lopez and Jarron Collins. Not to discredit Lopez and Collins, they're good players that shouldn't be cast out because they aren't big names. After all, Serge Ibaka had his way with the Lakers and he's not considered a particularly elite big man. However, I'd take Gasol and Bynum over almost all other PF-C combos in the league.

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Steve Nash will exploit his quickness against Derek Fisher. First of all, that's been the excuse opposing teams have used 82+ times this season. And, in many cases, opposing point guards have had the best of D-Fish, statistically anyway. In reality, though, Steve Nash and Derek Fisher are both 35. What will trouble the Lakers is Nash running off screens. Then again, the Lakers have young, quick guards in Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar who have the quickness to match Nash. And if there's only one thing Vujacic is good at, and at the moment it seems like there's only one, its running around screens. Plus, Vujacic has been in L.A. for a few years now and has become a pretty skilled actor. His showmanship could easily result in moving pick and offensive fouls against Phoenix.

And those are just (baseless) arguments against the Lakers. There are plenty of arguments favoring the Lakers and against the Suns. Notably, Grant Hill matched up with Ron Artest? Grant Hill should expect to end his season very quietly...

One thing I'll give to the Suns is the presence of A'mare Stoudemire. After standing up to the Utah Bruisers, I mean, Jazz, Pau Gasol has definitely shed his "soft" tag. But neither Gasol nor Bynum are as strong as A'mare and if Phoenix racks up offensive rebounds, they should automatically result in second chance points. The only other thing I can credit the Suns with is their efficient reserves. These days, it seems like any bench is better than L.A.'s. Robin Lopez and Amunson provide a nice spark and hustle play, Jared Dudley is one of the top "stealers" with a well-rounded game, Goran Dragic just scored 25 points in a quarter and 26 points in 17:27 of play, making 5/5 from downtown, Channing Frye is a 6'9" forward with a shot, and Leandro Barbosa is a "Brazilian blur" when he's on the floor.

If you're on the Suns, you can't afford to lose home games. It's extremely difficult to beat the Lakers at Staples Center, but if the Suns can get momentum with home wins, the series can change dramatically. Potentially, a Game 7 is within reach. But I doubt it. With the defending champs having gotten their act together against Utah, I'm picking Los Angeles in 5.

1 comments:

Matt said...

Really good post and you pointed out every reason why the Lakers will easily win this sereies.

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